RISK INTELLIGENCE DYLAN EVANS PDF

There is a special kind of intelligence for dealing with risk and uncertainty. It doesn't correlate with IQ and most psychologists fail to spot it because it is found in such a disparate, rag-tag group of people such as weather-forecasters, professional gamblers and hedge-fund managers. This book shows just how important risk intelligence is. Many people in positions which require high risk intelligence - doctors, financial regulators and bankers - seem unable to navigate doubt and uncertainty. Risk Intelligence is a traveller's guide to the twilight zone of probabilities and speculation.

Author:Tektilar Mazumi
Country:Burma
Language:English (Spanish)
Genre:Art
Published (Last):2 December 2004
Pages:229
PDF File Size:10.66 Mb
ePub File Size:5.99 Mb
ISBN:154-3-33863-316-8
Downloads:86198
Price:Free* [*Free Regsitration Required]
Uploader:Dabar



We all want leaders to make smart decisions. Maybe you fancy yourself as one of those leaders; someone who can make smart calls even when the evidence is inconclusive, as it usually is.

Well, here's an interesting little online test to see how good you are at estimating probabilities. It asks a series of general knowledge questions designed not to see how much you know, but how certain you are about what you know. If you're too confident about your knowledge or not confident enough, your RQ will suffer. Give it a try. They avoid temptations like all-you-can-eat buffets, and they establish habits that eliminate the mental effort of making choices.

Instead of deciding every morning whether or not to force themselves to exercise, they set up regular appointments to work out with a friend. And if a decision must be made late in the day, they know not to do it on an empty stomach. Photo by Flickr user Tiago Daniel.

Greece-euro: Descent into maelstrom Next Article. By Sam Roggeveen SamRoggeveen. By Sam Roggeveen ,. Sam Roggeveen.

100 GODINI SAMOTA PDF

Risk Intelligence

We all want leaders to make smart decisions. Maybe you fancy yourself as one of those leaders; someone who can make smart calls even when the evidence is inconclusive, as it usually is. Well, here's an interesting little online test to see how good you are at estimating probabilities. It asks a series of general knowledge questions designed not to see how much you know, but how certain you are about what you know. If you're too confident about your knowledge or not confident enough, your RQ will suffer. Give it a try. They avoid temptations like all-you-can-eat buffets, and they establish habits that eliminate the mental effort of making choices.

ACINETOBACTER NEJM PDF

Risk Intelligence: How to Live with Uncertainty

My copy of this book is graced by an enthusiastic quote from Wikipedia founder Jimmy Whales. A first reading left me with a rather skeptical feeling about the book, so I had to revisit it about a year later and re-read it. Evans defines Risk Intelligence as the ability to estimate probabilities accurately. He starts the book by illustrating the subject with a number of examples from everyday life and work situations. But: science rarely proves anything conclusively. Rather, it gradually accumulates evidence that makes it more or less likely that a hypothesis is true. Handling risk and uncertainty is a problem for many people.

ROLAND DYENS LIBRA SONATINE PDF

Test your risk quotient

Dylan Evans thinks — rightly — that most of us are bad at thinking about, let alone managing, risk. The way he puts it is that different people display different degrees of "risk intelligence", defined as "the ability to estimate probabilities accurately". At the heart of risk intelligence is the ability to gauge the limits of one's own knowledge — "to be cautious when you don't know much, and to be confident when, by contrast, you know a lot". And to have a rational strategy for obtaining relevant knowledge when you don't know much. Most of us aren't good at this. Consider an everyday scenario: you're buying a big flat-screen TV. The salesperson asks if you are interested in purchasing a three-year extended warranty.

Related Articles